Carges College Primer: Week 7

October 13, 2017
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Pete Carges
@Carges550

 

Halfway done.

Although it seems like just yesterday Stanford was obliterating Rice in Australia on an August Saturday, here we are, officially at the halfway point of the season. Now, don’t worry, we’ve still got a second half chock full of dynamite matches, plus 300 bowl games in December to look forward to, but for now, let’s reflect on the first half of the season:

  • Most impressive win: Oklahoma over Ohio State
  • Biggest Upset: Iowa State over Oklahoma
  • Best Game: Penn State over Iowa
  • Best Game (#MACtion edition): Western Michigan over UB in 7 OT’s
  • Best Finish: Miami over Florida State
  • Biggest Surprise team: TCU
  • Most disappointing team: Tennessee
  • Watch out in the second half: Ohio State
  • Will falter in the second half: Notre Dame
  • Best Primer Pick of the Season: Michigan State over Michigan
  • Worst Primer Pick of the Season: Vandy +19 vs Alabama (Final score 59-0)

Now as for the Primer’s first half of the season, it was an up and down affair that landed on the positive side last week. A 3-1 record brings us right back to .500 on the year, with yet another upset special winning outright last week. There are only two things the Primer has not done this year, and that’s go 4-0 or 0-4. I’m feeling that trend being changed this week, it’s up to you to decide which way to pick.
 

Week 7 Can’t Miss Games

  • 12 - Oklahoma vs Texas - 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)

You know what they say about rivalry games, throw out the records. But in this one, that really rings true as the underdog always tends to show up on the second Saturday of October.

The whole country saw what happened to Oklahoma last week when the defense decides to take a day off, as Iowa State knocked them off for the biggest upset of the season so far.

Texas meanwhile, had an uplifting double overtime win against Kansas State, and Tom Herman has his squad trending in the right direction. I don’t expect a repeat performance from Oklahoma’s defense this week, but rather their offense will face the toughest test of the season against a Texas unit that completely shut down USC a few weeks ago. The Longhorns are one of the only teams in the Big 12 that actually plays defense, and I expect a much lower scoring game than last year’s 45-40 affair.

OU will get the win and right the ship, but Tom Herman’s strong record ATS as an underdog will continue, as Texas loses by just a field goal.

MY PICK: Texas +9
 

 

  • 10 - Auburn at LSU - 3:30 p.m. (CBS)

After the first couple weeks of the season, this game looked like it was going to be a defensive slugfest with LSU the home favorite. Things have changed dramatically over the past month. Auburn’s offense has kicked into high gear, and LSU has stumbled in the month of October, losing to Troy and barely squeaking out a win against Florida last week.

There’s no other way to put it, the offense of LSU is pitiful. It has been for a few years now, but it has reached new lows this season. Coach O’s only hope in this one is for his defense to come up with a few big plays, but I just don’t see that as being enough against an Auburn team that has scored over 40 points the last three weeks.

Stidham and the boys get it done on offense, and the dream SEC deciding matchup in the Iron Bowl remains intact.

MY PICK: Auburn -7
 

  • Utah at 13 - USC - 8 p.m. (ABC)

Two weeks ago, this one was looking like a potential top-10 matchup, with the winner getting the inside track in the Pac-12 south. Losses by both teams over the past few weeks have put a halt to that outlook however, as both of these teams now just need a win to stay alive.

Utah has been in every game so far this year, and they are a nice story, but I just don’t think they have the firepower offensively to roll with the big dogs of the Pac-12.

USC bounced back from their loss to Wazzu with a 38-10 drubbing of Oregon State last weekend, and I think they continue the trend this week at home. Last year,

Utah upset USC and following that game, coach Clay Helton decided to make the switch to QB Sam Darnold. I’d say that’s worked out so far, and the Trojans get their revenge on Saturday with a blowout win at home.

MY PICK: USC -13


***UPSET ALERT***

  • South Carolina (+3.5) at Tennessee

Tennessee is hot garbage right now. Their coach has no idea what he’s doing, the fans have turned on them, and their quarterback situation is worse than the Browns. Not to mention they have a date with Alabama next week.

South Carolina isn’t a great team, but they can score and the Vols cannot.

Things are going to get worse before they get better in Knoxville, and Saturday is another notch down the ladder. This won’t be a ground breaking upset like Michigan State over Michigan (who called that one again?) but the Vols are not winning this game, and certainly not by more than a field goal.


Other games to Watch:

  • 6 - TCU at Kansas State - 12 p.m. (FS1)
  • 9 - Ohio State at Nebraska - 4 p.m. (FS1)
  • Oregon at 23 - Stanford - 11 p.m. (ESPN)
     

My College Football Playoff (If the season ended today):

  • 1 - Clemson vs 4 - Georgia
  • 2 - Alabama vs 3 - Penn State

NEXT FOUR IN: TCU, Washington State, Washington, Wisconsin
 

Heisman Front-runners:

  1. Saquon Barkley - RB - Penn State
  2. Baker Mayfield - QB - Oklahoma
  3. Bryce Love - RB - Stanford
  4. Luke Falk - QB - Washington State
  5. Mason Rudolph - QB - Oklahoma State